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☆ Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, better than expected as consumer spending is holding up
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending held up well in July as inflation slowed, with retail sales turning in a stronger-than-expected showing for the month, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced retail sales report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% for the month, better than the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding autos, sales rose a robust 1%, also against a 0.4% forecast. Gas station sales rose just 0.4% on the month despite rising prices at the pump. On a 12-month basis, sales rose 3.2%, which is exactly in line with the annual increase in the CPI.

Persons: Dow Jones, Mike Loewengart, Jim Baird, Plante Organizations: Commerce Department, Gas, Federal, Fed, Morgan Stanley Global Investment, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Export, Consumers, Financial Advisors, Empire, Manufacturing Survey Locations: U.S, New York

☆ Could the Fed raise rates again in June?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Traders saw a roughly 36% chance last Thursday that the Fed will raise rates by another quarter point in June, up from around 15.5% on May 12, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders pared down their expectations to about a 18.6% chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, as of Friday evening. Experts seem to agree that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again in June. Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, also expects the Fed to hold rates steady in June. Dimon said in the same Bloomberg interview that he’d “love to get rid of the debt ceiling thing” altogether.

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ Economic growth likely was solid to start the year, but that could end the good news for a while
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. economy likely grew at a solid pace to start the year, though things are expected to get worse before they get better. "It shows an economy that so far is resilient, weathering all kinds of storms so far and growing at pretty close to potential. Where the growth is So far, consumers have managed to withstand the higher rates. "We expect a solid 2.3% (QoQ SAAR) increase in Q1 real GDP, with details that appear even more positive for the economic backdrop. Despite rising debt levels and the prospects that financing will become more difficult to come by, consumers are in fairly solid shape.

☆ The banking crisis is having a slow-burn impact on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

That's a credit hit on Middle America, on Main Street," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Watching growth aheadIn the immediate future, the reading on first-quarter economic growth is expected to be largely positive despite the banking problems. In fact, the most recent recession was just two years ago in the early days of the Covid crisis. Consumer spending has seemed to hold up fairly well in the face of the banking crisis, with Citigroup estimating excess savings of about $1 trillion still available. [The banking situation] is a headwind, but it's not a gale-force headwind, it's just kind of a nuisance."

Persons: Spencer Platt, Steven Blitz, Stocks, Robert Sockin, it's, Dow Jones, isn't, It's, Moody's, Mark Zandi, headwind, Covid, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, TS Lombard, First, Bank, P Bank ETF, Citigroup, Commerce Department, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Moody's, Financial Advisors Locations: New York City, U.S, America, First Republic, Atlanta

☆ Premarket stocks: What to watch as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is on the hot seat this week as he testifies before Congress. Powell will have some good news to report — when he last testified before Congress in June, the inflation rate was at 40-year-highs, nearing 9%. Investors will also be on edge — hawkish language or even an aggressive tone from Powell could lead to market volatility. Some Fed officials agree. Economists, business leaders, investors and even Fed officials aren’t really sure about what’s happening.

☆ Premarket stocks: Don't underestimate the American shopper
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

All that extra cash should support strong spending through February and perhaps March, said Bank of America analysts. That means the Fed may use the strong data as an excuse to keep hiking interest rates. Recession risk may be deferred, but it certainly hasn’t dissipated.”PPI, housing starts and bald spots: What investors are watching today▸ Thursday morning brings two big data releases: The January Producer Price Index and housing starts. ▸ Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, have declined every month since August. Housing starts are expected to decline slightly.

☆ Premarket stocks: Investors are hoping for the economic tide to turn. The wait may soon be over
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

What’s happening: Price increases in the United States cooled more than economists expected last month, recording the lowest level of growth since last December. This is the second consecutive month of moderating price pressures and could mean the underlying trend of inflation is finally decelerating. That’s a welcome and hopeful sign for consumers, policymakers and investors, said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. The bill specifically names TikTok and its parent, ByteDance, as social media companies for the purposes of the legislation. In the past two weeks, at least seven states have introduced such measures, including Maryland, South Dakota and Utah.

☆ Premarket stocks: Get ready for a spending slowdown this holiday season
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Retail sales surged by 1.3% in October. What’s happening: Wednesday’s headline retail sales numbers, reported by the US Census Bureau, came in strong, but the momentum is unlikely to continue. These cracks in retail are starting to show just as the sector enters its most critical sales period: The holiday shopping season. The bottom line: This holiday season will likely be a mixed bag with some winners and losers in the retail sector, said Saunders. “We do have to do some tax rises, do some spending cuts, if we’re going to show we’re a country that pays our way,” he told Sky News on Sunday.

☆ Even with slower inflation, consumer sentiment weakened sharply in November, survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

On an annual basis, the headline index reading fell 18.8%, while the current conditions measure was off 21.5% and the future expectations measure slid 17%. The University of Michigan release comes a day after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, below the 0.6% estimate. "For low-income households in particular, higher prices for essentials limit discretionary spending, crimp savings, and contribute to higher credit card debt." Inflation expectations edged higher in the month despite October's CPI reading, which showed that year-over-year prices rose 7.7%, compared to 8.2% the previous month. The sentiment index reached its historic low in June as worries accelerate that the U.S. already was in recession or heading for one.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed is killing the housing market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

This ultra-resilient economy stands in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive attempts to quell inflation by slowing growth through aggressive interest rates. Those higher rates, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates to tame soaring inflation, are beginning to choke the housing market. “The surge in mortgage rates and extremely high housing prices has led to massive pullback in first time home purchasing and has pushed investors to the side. But housing is a bellwether for the rest of the economy, and these contractions will inevitably weigh on broader US growth. Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) fell short of earnings expectations last quarter, citing a slowing digital ad market.

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